Automation and Jobs

[GuitarBilly]

I don't disagree, but, the people who work at say, McDonald's, are also their customers, so, if you get rid of one, you'll be getting rid of a chunk of the other. Same with Walmart and the like. Companies will have to watch that, at least a little.

Exactly right. There's a balance between cost cutting/automation and the consumer market. At all levels.

[neilrocks25]

Sure. But as technology evolves, new jobs are also created. For example, back in the 80's and up to mid 90's, "web design" was for spiders. Today is a well-known job. So is Social Media expert, SEO specialist, blogger, app developer and many others.... industries like renewable energy will also create a lot of new opportunities... I think the future of your career is more dependent on your ability to adapt and change than whether your job will be automated or not.

Yes and no, My job will be non existent it will just not exist. But I am going to sidestep (hopefully) to something closely related.

But there are other jobs that will just disappear 1 in 3 is the estimation in the UK mostly low skilled.

https://www.theguardian.com/technology/ ... ced-robots

[neilrocks25]

Automation will be taking jobs more and more over the next few years.
I know my job will be obsolete in the next 5 to 10 years (possibly even earlier) I work in communications for Trading systems and With Skype for business and other programs for Trading taking over from tradition systems I see my job going.

do you think this will effect your work? If so do you have a back up plan?
For example I looking to redo my networking certs and hopefully get into network security (though a bit of long shot as I am in my 40's).

I started a new career in software development a few months ago. I remember in the mid 90's, some family friends were worried that this industry was going to go down the tubes due to outsourcing, but that really isn't the case any more. Many companies don't want to outsource business logic and other private stuff to randoms all over the world when they can have a trustworthy team working close to one another. As for automation, this particular software will, at most, be able to cut down on the number of accountants and/or managers that have to make certain financial decisions.

If you get a kick out of networking/security and are good at it or enjoy it, then go for it. The field of cyber security has some really interesting sounding job. Also, being in your 40's does not make it a long-shot.

Thanks, I work in IP based telecoms so it is based in networking so it is not a million miles away. Though it is different but I am going to give it a shot, it was either that or getting more into programming but I hate programming (a Java course I did about 7 years ago drove me insane).
And thanks for making me feel better about getting old

If That doesn't work for me I am setting up a side business importing and geeky stuff from Japan and possibly stuff the other way. I also may look into something in the trade industry.

[K-Bizzle]

I don't disagree, but, the people who work at say, McDonald's, are also their customers, so, if you get rid of one, you'll be getting rid of a chunk of the other. Same with Walmart and the like. Companies will have to watch that, at least a little.

Exactly right. There's a balance between cost cutting/automation and the consumer market. At all levels.

This is why I said I think we'll need s new economic paradigm.
I look at it this way, in the US at least, if McDs starts automating and drives down their cost what happens?
They either increase their profits or lower the cost to consumers. Most likely both.

What will their competitors do? Not follow suit because they're scared their employees won't shop there? That's not how capitalism as we know it currently works. They'll do what they have to to be competitive.

Then let's say overall market for fast food is reduced due to a smaller market since fewer people have jobs and money. Demand has dropped, so some of the supply side will drop too. Fewer companies, maybe fewer locations, etc.

I don't think we'll see a "let's keep jobs because they're our customers too."
Didn't happen in the auto industry, doubt it'll happen in other parts of the economy.

[neilrocks25]

I don't disagree, but, the people who work at say, McDonald's, are also their customers, so, if you get rid of one, you'll be getting rid of a chunk of the other. Same with Walmart and the like. Companies will have to watch that, at least a little.

Exactly right. There's a balance between cost cutting/automation and the consumer market. At all levels.

This is why I said I think we'll need s new economic paradigm.
I look at it this way, in the US at least, if McDs starts automating and drives down their cost what happens?
They either increase their profits or lower the cost to consumers. Most likely both.

What will their competitors do? Not follow suit because they're scared their employees won't shop there? That's not how capitalism as we know it currently works. They'll do what they have to to be competitive.

Then let's say overall market for fast food is reduced due to a smaller market since fewer people have jobs and money. Demand has dropped, so some of the supply side will drop too. Fewer companies, maybe fewer locations, etc.

I don't think we'll see a "let's keep jobs because they're our customers too."
Didn't happen in the auto industry, doubt it'll happen in other parts of the economy.

This is one of the reasons I started this thread (though you put it much more eloquently ), also because I am preparing for it myself and safeguard my future the best I can.
I think a lot of companies will shoot themselves in the foot with automation, I also think this will be the cause of the next recession or at least some social unrest.

[Dave]

It's funny, but I have a theory...


the US government doesn't want droves of unemployed middle class people pissed off and broke. There will always be some kind of industry, job growth, etc to ensure there are consumers. As said above, consumers are vital to our economy and there's no benefit to bankrupting the system and putting everyone out of work.

Just evolve like we've always done, and find the new widget to produce to make a buck. Status quo, y'all. More reasons why doom and gloom talk is only a detriment to one's well being. Don't settle in to a rut, and stay alert in watching industry trends.

Some people will fall off of the middle class train as it chugs along, and a few will join it from lower and higher classes, but for the most part people stay within their respective class buckets and their normal career/life trajectory. Nothing will change for the foreseeable future.

[TurboPablo]

Whether I agree with my current Governor on everything or not, I will give her some credit for trying to develop strategic partnerships between industry and the universities. She's asked the different companies in state to help develop properly aligned education curriculum's so students are prepared for cutting edge industry.

[Chris Z]

I'm pretty sure I will be dead in five years. So, yeah. I got that going for me.

[Dave]

I'm pretty sure I will be dead in five years. So, yeah. I got that going for me.

Problem solved!

[Ry Manchu]

Automation will be taking jobs more and more over the next few years.
I know my job will be obsolete in the next 5 to 10 years (possibly even earlier) I work in communications for Trading systems and With Skype for business and other programs for Trading taking over from tradition systems I see my job going.

do you think this will effect your work? If so do you have a back up plan?
For example I looking to redo my networking certs and hopefully get into network security (though a bit of long shot as I am in my 40's).

I made a similar career change in 2006. I was a print journalist and I saw the writing on the wall back in 2005. I studied for and earned an MCSE and Cisco CCNP. I passed two of the four tests for Cisco CCSP, this is an extremely difficult track to pass. Without experience or looking the part (not geeky enough) I was still finding it hard to get a job. So, I earned a second Bachelor's degree in I.T. specializing in networks. I volunteered in computer support on campus. My goal was to take away every reason that someone wouldn't hire me. Right before I graduated I found a job supporting the networks at a casino, a brand new industry in Florida.

If this is the path you want to take, here is my advice. Join discussion groups online; read and get to know people. Join a local group, attend regularly and get to know people. Ask anyone that likes you for advice on how to get into the field. Be humble and honest. Don't have high hopes for your starting salary on your first job. It is better to learn burgeoning technology for low pay than to ride out legacy hardware/software for high pay. Be willing to do some lowly work if it gets you some experience, contacts or a foot in the door. Don't spend big money on people that promise you high wages, unless they can give you 50 names of people you can call to verify the wages. You can find the resources yourself to pass the cert tests. Don't place all of your hope on certifications.

Try to use the experience you have and people that you know to make your career step. Once again, ask the people that like you for advice and ask them if you can use them for a reference.

[neilrocks25]

Automation will be taking jobs more and more over the next few years.
I know my job will be obsolete in the next 5 to 10 years (possibly even earlier) I work in communications for Trading systems and With Skype for business and other programs for Trading taking over from tradition systems I see my job going.

do you think this will effect your work? If so do you have a back up plan?
For example I looking to redo my networking certs and hopefully get into network security (though a bit of long shot as I am in my 40's).

I made a similar career change in 2006. I was a print journalist and I saw the writing on the wall back in 2005. I studied for and earned an MCSE and Cisco CCNP. I passed two of the four tests for Cisco CCSP, this is an extremely difficult track to pass. Without experience or looking the part (not geeky enough) I was still finding it hard to get a job. So, I earned a second Bachelor's degree in I.T. specializing in networks. I volunteered in computer support on campus. My goal was to take away every reason that someone wouldn't hire me. Right before I graduated I found a job supporting the networks at a casino, a brand new industry in Florida.

If this is the path you want to take, here is my advice. Join discussion groups online; read and get to know people. Join a local group, attend regularly and get to know people. Ask anyone that likes you for advice on how to get into the field. Be humble and honest. Don't have high hopes for your starting salary on your first job. It is better to learn burgeoning technology for low pay than to ride out legacy hardware/software for high pay. Be willing to do some lowly work if it gets you some experience, contacts or a foot in the door. Don't spend big money on people that promise you high wages, unless they can give you 50 names of people you can call to verify the wages. You can find the resources yourself to pass the cert tests. Don't place all of your hope on certifications.

Try to use the experience you have and people that you know to make your career step. Once again, ask the people that like you for advice and ask them if you can use them for a reference.

I did a CCNA course back in 2010 and I use networks as part of my Job (vLAN's IP address' station codes etc) baicly I am a voice engineer for the trading floors in one of the top 5 investment banks, I am already a member of I.T but I am mostly a voice specialist (communications). So my experience should help.
I am just trying to get in before my job is defunct I should have at least 2 years.
I am will to take a pay cut to get into it (as long as it covers my mortgage).

I have been on several groups in Linked in doing this for a while.

[Ry Manchu]

Neil, it sounds like you're in a pretty good place to make the transition into networking.

If you are going to go for a Cisco Cert again, you want the books written by Diane Teare and Richard Froom.

The Cisco Networking Academy companion guides and learning guides are the best books. You can tackle about 100 pages/ day on the CCCNA books, but 50 pages/day on the CCNP will test your mettle.

http://www.ciscopress.com/markets/detail.asp?st=44750
http://www.ciscopress.com/markets/detail.asp?st=44707

If you plan to do CCSP, it is impossible without a lab at home.

[neilrocks25]

Neil, it sounds like you're in a pretty good place to make the transition into networking.

If you are going to go for a Cisco Cert again, you want the books written by Diane Teare and Richard Froom.

The Cisco Networking Academy companion guides and learning guides are the best books. You can tackle about 100 pages/ day on the CCCNA books, but 50 pages/day on the CCNP will test your mettle.

http://www.ciscopress.com/markets/detail.asp?st=44750
http://www.ciscopress.com/markets/detail.asp?st=44707

If you plan to do CCSP, it is impossible without a lab at home.

Already have them.

I have a virtual lab program as well

[K-Bizzle]

It's funny, but I have a theory...


the US government doesn't want droves of unemployed middle class people pissed off and broke. There will always be some kind of industry, job growth, etc to ensure there are consumers. As said above, consumers are vital to our economy and there's no benefit to bankrupting the system and putting everyone out of work.

Just evolve like we've always done, and find the new widget to produce to make a buck. Status quo, y'all. More reasons why doom and gloom talk is only a detriment to one's well being. Don't settle in to a rut, and stay alert in watching industry trends.

Some people will fall off of the middle class train as it chugs along, and a few will join it from lower and higher classes, but for the most part people stay within their respective class buckets and their normal career/life trajectory. Nothing will change for the foreseeable future.

I don't mean this as an insult but I think you're ignorant to this subject to some degree, specifically the bolded.
Do some reading on advances on AI, big data, and both soft and hardware automation.
This is literally the field I work in and have worked in for the last 12 years or so (specifically the industrial automation side) and right now things are changed FAST.
My job could easily be eliminated through a proper general AI.

Anything that has data points and a system can be automated and most likely will long term.
We're literally at the start of a whole new era and the coming AI explosion will be an exponential J curve not just something that chugs along at a pace we've seen before.
This will be what we saw in transition from the industrial age to the information age x10.
This isn't the same as when we replaced human labor with animal labor, or animal labor with machine labor.
We're at the very start of replacing human intellect. We're at the beginning of an age of augmentation where we supplement human intellect with machine intellect. Take the greatest chess "player" in the world today. Its not grand master human, its not a computer, its a team of a human and a computer working together. Or how specifically developed AIs can detect cancerous cells better than any doctor but can't yet deliver the news or discuss options with the patient like the doctor.
These are microcosms of what is being developed and what is to come.

To be clear I don't say any of this with doom or gloom, Ultimately I think its an opportunity to completely rid ourselves of poverty and drudgery and simply be free to live.
This won't come fully to fruition for a time to come but I think the very beginning is already happening to say stay alert and watching industry trends and at the same token say rapid change isn't coming doesn't exactly add up.

[neilrocks25]

It's funny, but I have a theory...


the US government doesn't want droves of unemployed middle class people pissed off and broke. There will always be some kind of industry, job growth, etc to ensure there are consumers. As said above, consumers are vital to our economy and there's no benefit to bankrupting the system and putting everyone out of work.

Just evolve like we've always done, and find the new widget to produce to make a buck. Status quo, y'all. More reasons why doom and gloom talk is only a detriment to one's well being. Don't settle in to a rut, and stay alert in watching industry trends.

Some people will fall off of the middle class train as it chugs along, and a few will join it from lower and higher classes, but for the most part people stay within their respective class buckets and their normal career/life trajectory. Nothing will change for the foreseeable future.

I don't mean this as an insult but I think you're ignorant to this subject to some degree, specifically the bolded.
Do some reading on advances on AI, big data, and both soft and hardware automation.
This is literally the field I work in and have worked in for the last 12 years or so (specifically the industrial automation side) and right now things are changed FAST.
My job could easily be eliminated through a proper general AI.

Anything that has data points and a system can be automated and most likely will long term.
We're literally at the start of a whole new era and the coming AI explosion will be an exponential J curve not just something that chugs along at a pace we've seen before.
This will be what we saw in transition from the industrial age to the information age x10.
This isn't the same as when we replaced human labor with animal labor, or animal labor with machine labor.
We're at the very start of replacing human intellect. We're at the beginning of an age of augmentation where we supplement human intellect with machine intellect. Take the greatest chess "player" in the world today. Its not grand master human, its not a computer, its a team of a human and a computer working together. Or how specifically developed AIs can detect cancerous cells better than any doctor but can't yet deliver the news or discuss options with the patient like the doctor.
These are microcosms of what is being developed and what is to come.

To be clear I don't say any of this with doom or gloom, Ultimately I think its an opportunity to completely rid ourselves of poverty and drudgery and simply be free to live.
This won't come fully to fruition for a time to come but I think the very beginning is already happening to say stay alert and watching industry trends and at the same token say rapid change isn't coming doesn't exactly add up.

I have seen this my self, the bank I work for (lets call it D bank) have a LAB for new technology and are constantly looking at ways to replace costly staff with automated process or programs that can asses situations better than any analyst. I have already been told the plans to automate and replace my work (as well as most I.T jobs) this may not be for another 5 to 10 years (though could even be 2). So am doing what I have to do to evolve but I know a lot of people that can't.
The other problem is it wont be just where I work it will be all over the city, so that makes a lot of professionals fighting for the scraps of work that is left.

I have known this is coming but its definitely stepped up a gear over the last couple of years.

[madryan]

It's funny, but I have a theory...


the US government doesn't want droves of unemployed middle class people pissed off and broke. There will always be some kind of industry, job growth, etc to ensure there are consumers. As said above, consumers are vital to our economy and there's no benefit to bankrupting the system and putting everyone out of work.

Just evolve like we've always done, and find the new widget to produce to make a buck. Status quo, y'all. More reasons why doom and gloom talk is only a detriment to one's well being. Don't settle in to a rut, and stay alert in watching industry trends.

Some people will fall off of the middle class train as it chugs along, and a few will join it from lower and higher classes, but for the most part people stay within their respective class buckets and their normal career/life trajectory. Nothing will change for the foreseeable future.

I don't mean this as an insult but I think you're ignorant to this subject to some degree, specifically the bolded.
Do some reading on advances on AI, big data, and both soft and hardware automation.
This is literally the field I work in and have worked in for the last 12 years or so (specifically the industrial automation side) and right now things are changed FAST.
My job could easily be eliminated through a proper general AI.

Anything that has data points and a system can be automated and most likely will long term.
We're literally at the start of a whole new era and the coming AI explosion will be an exponential J curve not just something that chugs along at a pace we've seen before.
This will be what we saw in transition from the industrial age to the information age x10.
This isn't the same as when we replaced human labor with animal labor, or animal labor with machine labor.
We're at the very start of replacing human intellect. We're at the beginning of an age of augmentation where we supplement human intellect with machine intellect. Take the greatest chess "player" in the world today. Its not grand master human, its not a computer, its a team of a human and a computer working together. Or how specifically developed AIs can detect cancerous cells better than any doctor but can't yet deliver the news or discuss options with the patient like the doctor.
These are microcosms of what is being developed and what is to come.

To be clear I don't say any of this with doom or gloom, Ultimately I think its an opportunity to completely rid ourselves of poverty and drudgery and simply be free to live.
This won't come fully to fruition for a time to come but I think the very beginning is already happening to say stay alert and watching industry trends and at the same token say rapid change isn't coming doesn't exactly add up.

Totally agree...

This is why I jumped ship on industrial manufacturing about 7 years ago and instead decided to hunker down in the public or service sector. The pay isn't as good but job security as a Federal employee is much better for now.

[TurboPablo]

I think about bailing on my infrastructure career everyday. But this is a topic that definitely concerns me. My job is more secure than the undertakers and prostitutes. Even with advancements in AI, this job is always going to require experienced human decisions, instincts and actions.

That's my veiw from the inside.

[Ry Manchu]

We're at the very start of replacing human intellect. We're at the beginning of an age of augmentation where we supplement human intellect with machine intellect. Take the greatest chess "player" in the world today. Its not grand master human, its not a computer, its a team of a human and a computer working together. Or how specifically developed AIs can detect cancerous cells better than any doctor but can't yet deliver the news or discuss options with the patient like the doctor.
These are microcosms of what is being developed and what is to come.

To be clear I don't say any of this with doom or gloom, Ultimately I think its an opportunity to completely rid ourselves of poverty and drudgery and simply be free to live.
This won't come fully to fruition for a time to come but I think the very beginning is already happening to say stay alert and watching industry trends and at the same token say rapid change isn't coming doesn't exactly add up.

Watch this: http://www.cbsnews.com/videos/ibms-arti ... cer-fight/

Watson read 25 million cancer research studies in two weeks. Then they tasked Watson with checking the treatment plans of all the cancer patients at a few of hospitals. Watson was more accurate than some of the best Oncologists at Duke, Yale and the Cleveland Clinic. If you have a 60 minutes account, the full story is on their website, it's from last October. Watson has already partnered with two dozen hospitals. I predict within two years, it will be used by every Oncology department in the country.

[TurboPablo]

How effective is AI if someone unplugs it?

[neilrocks25]

How effective is AI if someone unplugs it?

What if it becomes self aware and stops you

[TurboPablo]

How effective is AI if someone unplugs it?

What if it becomes self aware and stops you

I'll go down to the panel and kill the breaker.

[Dave]

It's funny, but I have a theory...


the US government doesn't want droves of unemployed middle class people pissed off and broke. There will always be some kind of industry, job growth, etc to ensure there are consumers. As said above, consumers are vital to our economy and there's no benefit to bankrupting the system and putting everyone out of work.

Just evolve like we've always done, and find the new widget to produce to make a buck. Status quo, y'all. More reasons why doom and gloom talk is only a detriment to one's well being. Don't settle in to a rut, and stay alert in watching industry trends.

Some people will fall off of the middle class train as it chugs along, and a few will join it from lower and higher classes, but for the most part people stay within their respective class buckets and their normal career/life trajectory. Nothing will change for the foreseeable future.

I don't mean this as an insult but I think you're ignorant to this subject to some degree, specifically the bolded.
Do some reading on advances on AI, big data, and both soft and hardware automation.
This is literally the field I work in and have worked in for the last 12 years or so (specifically the industrial automation side) and right now things are changed FAST.
My job could easily be eliminated through a proper general AI.

Anything that has data points and a system can be automated and most likely will long term.
We're literally at the start of a whole new era and the coming AI explosion will be an exponential J curve not just something that chugs along at a pace we've seen before.
This will be what we saw in transition from the industrial age to the information age x10.
This isn't the same as when we replaced human labor with animal labor, or animal labor with machine labor.
We're at the very start of replacing human intellect. We're at the beginning of an age of augmentation where we supplement human intellect with machine intellect. Take the greatest chess "player" in the world today. Its not grand master human, its not a computer, its a team of a human and a computer working together. Or how specifically developed AIs can detect cancerous cells better than any doctor but can't yet deliver the news or discuss options with the patient like the doctor.
These are microcosms of what is being developed and what is to come.

To be clear I don't say any of this with doom or gloom, Ultimately I think its an opportunity to completely rid ourselves of poverty and drudgery and simply be free to live.
This won't come fully to fruition for a time to come but I think the very beginning is already happening to say stay alert and watching industry trends and at the same token say rapid change isn't coming doesn't exactly add up.

It's possible I worded that poorly, actually I'm positive I did, but it appears we're on the same page.

I didn't say automation isn't going to happen. It will. In mass waves. I'm saying the government will ensure new industries require human interaction/jobs to keep people employed. There's already a ton of socialist style programs at work behind the scenes that keep entire industries in need of human resources.

I'm not saying people can just find new manufacturing jobs to physically produce widgets. Widgets entails reporting, analysis, sales, whatever... people will find new industries to push forward just like IT/networking/web dev have become prominent today.


No one wants the economy to come to a grinding halt. Ever. It benefits no one. Businesses need consumers to buy their products. America wants to keep our middle class going to support businesses, keep officials elected, etc. Who do you think pays taxes? Who would pay taxes if no one had jobs?

Watch for things like regulation, grants to cottage industries, and other forms of government intervention to see just how much work the US government puts in to keeping the majority of our country employed. It wouldn't be too hard this very day to wipe out tons of redundancy and put millions out of work. What happens then? Fucking riots, dude. Fucking chaos. No one wants the majority of the country unemployed.


Let's take you as an example. Say AI wipes out your job. You're a smart, resourceful guy and you'll be employed again at some point, and get right back to the level you are now, if not higher. Might be a totally different industry, but you're in the middle class and your general demeanor and ability to function as a middle class adult will keep you in that class.

[neilrocks25]

How effective is AI if someone unplugs it?

What if it becomes self aware and stops you

I'll go down to the panel and kill the breaker.

[Reverse Entropy]

I think the impact of the next wave of automation will be from the sheer proportion of it.

Kiosks or self serve screens replacing racks of clothes or counter sales. Browse through /SHIRTS/FUNKY until you decide you like Shirt/Tropical/Style6 and hit the button. In a minute you get served a package and insert your payment card. Much less display space, faster customer throughput. Obviously there are things to tweak, but the concept will come.

McDonalds already has kiosk ordering, and so does the deli counter at Sheetz. The drink dispenser is already 90% automated, it's just not putting on the lid yet.

AnheuserBusch/InBev has already tested automated truck delivery from factory to warehouse for distribution. Yeah for now there is a "safety human" there in the truck, but that won't last.

How many people become jobless if we automate stuff like the above ? It's a big chunk.

[Ostinato Rubato]

How effective is AI if someone unplugs it?

What if it becomes self aware and stops you

There's actually several high level programmers who are genuinely concerned about how poorly tested AI could go awry. It's funny to think of in terms of skynet, but it's also something to be taken seriously.