Automation and Jobs

[JerEvil]

My particular job will likely be in tact but a lot of my employees will likely have to learn a new skill set unfortunately. We are moving more and more to customer driven execution for print materials. We have gone from more one-off design to templates formats with a new project starting making the templates editable online with fixed image and copy areas. Great for the business but tough for the team.

I always wondered why large businesses made one-off designs in this day and age. At the last bank I was PM'ing some of our outgoing solicitation letters for the MHA programs to help underwater borrowers. We had vendors creating their own merge letter templates, and then I'd have to send them off to creative for their approval before going down the legal, risk, and compliance path. I never understood why we didn't have letter templates for them to start with so they didn't have to keep trying to match Bank of America red on their version. Or using their proprietary "flagscape" font. Or any of the other spacing/sizing/scaling issues they'd come back to us with.

Yeah I am a big fan of templates creative for Brand executions. That's the only way to create truly consistent messaging to you your customers from location to location/region to region.

[Dave]

F'ing right?

We had 5 vendors each with their own print vendors sending out a different version of the same basic letter. Truly dumb

[Noah]

You're just not gonna go?
yeah.
Won't you get fired?
I don't know, but I really don't like it, and I'm just not gonna go
so, you're gonna quit?
no. i don't know. I'm just not gonna go.

Gotta work on that killer board game idea.

[GuitarBilly]

I'm seeing a push lately for the trades again. I'm thinking to myself - "that is a short lived trek". For instance a lot of manufacturing went to Asia, but welding is being pushed here in the states now.

Sure, bring back manufacturing. But the push for ppl to learn a trades skill will diminish once the cost of automating becomes cheaper than hiring. Shit that's why they went over seas to begin with - cheap labor. Why pony up to have the machines to do the work when we can have slave labor make it for pennies on the dollar.

Bringing it back here? Even if they do, there's just so many benefits to automation.
Then joe shmuck gets pushed lower and lower on the pay scale until he's stuck with a barely livable wage welding job or learning yet another skill late in career/life.

I'm gonna become an entrepreneur. I think I'll sell homobilly hats to millennials and camo socks to metal-heads.

Some trades will be here forever. You need a plumber, electrician, AC technician, cable guy etc to fix something in your house/business, no one will fly out from Asia. I am sure some of it will be fixable remotely eventually, but there is no remote fix to a busted pipe gushing shit water in your driveway any time soon.

Trades directly related to manufacturing are iffy The main thing is that cheap labor is still cheaper than most forms of automation, but the cost of automation keeps going down while labor has a bottom price. Once the cost of automation is below the labor floor and it will eventually be, then those jobs are doomed even in Asia.


Most people saying "my job can't be automated" really mean "it's not financially feasible to do so". Yet.

[soulsurfer]

That's what I was speaking to - manufacturing. I don't see the need to worry about the jobs you mentioned anytime soon anyway.

we've come a long way in a relatively short time.

there's robot concierges in hotels now. Somewhat of a novelty for now...but only for now.
When I was working for the Navy some 20yrs ago, in one of the buildings, they had a robot that brought mail around. I think it could record voice messages too - but I didn't see that demonstrated. There was a robot that came around and cleaned the floors too.
That too was a bit of a novelty and buggy.
However, it won't be long and they'll be serving us in more in more ways and places.

Automated cars.
Automated rail.
Automated sorting and delivery.
Automated parking garages.
Automated homes.

countless other versions of hybrid-auto/manned systems are in play now and moving toward full automation.


Military has a shit-ton of automation already and testing more.

I don't think that these are taking any jobs at any notable rate - right now. But I do think that it will happen faster than some will be prepared for...or at an unfortunate time for some where it will be too late in their life/career to do something else that pays the same. They'll get stuck being a Walmart greeter - unless.....


We're communal creatures. We live in cities. We congregate on web-forums. We seek out crowds for various reasons.
Making it easier for us to do that would be a good way to automate something. (transportation ? )

When I make my millions selling homobilly hats i'm starting an automated ped-transport. A people currier for easier downtown travel. Have a tablet built into the 'dash' with a card swipe. Just type in the name of where you want to go (or choose from a list) and off you go. GPS and optical/radar and magnetic tracking will keep it safe it will run on rechargeable batteries. It will self dock at varied stations around town to recharge.

[GuitarBilly]

The truth is that there is a balance between cost-cutting and employment availability. You can cut jobs up to a certain rate before it affects the customer end of your bottom line. When people lose their jobs their spending goes down dramatically too, so you need to carefully cut your expenses without creating too big of an impact to the consumer market. This is more important in some industries than in others, but they all consider this factor to a degree or another.

Robots can make anything, but you still need gainfully employed people to buy what they're making. THAT is the one irreplaceable human factor. Robots won't buy shit - ever.

[soulsurfer]

Robots won't buy shit - ever.



No - they don't.

[Dave]

Like Billy said, with every wave of automation we'll discover new careers and fields that didn't exist prior to those changes.

The only people that should be worried are the ones that typically aren't. People like my old bass player that sold truck parts for a living, thinking that would sustain itself for another 40 years until he could retire.

Watching him cry about getting cut down to 50% of his salary only a year prior was kinda sad to watch, but in reality I wanted to shake him. Why in the world did he think a high school diploma and no real job skills would make 6 figures for the rest of his life? His counterparts at the other area dealerships were all making $40k a year while he made $120k. It didn't dawn on him that his dad hooked his ass up at 19 years old with the truck porter job. He just waited for people to retire until he became a parts salesman. At some point the big rig dealership was sold from the mom and pop operation, and corporate bean counters have been cutting expenses left and right. Last I talked to him he was down right terrified since that's all he knows how to do. Show up on time, and look up inventory on a computer.

[fretless]

In Japan they will be inserting their peens into those blobots first.

[GuitarBilly]

Like Billy said, with every wave of automation we'll discover new careers and fields that didn't exist prior to those changes.

The only people that should be worried are the ones that typically aren't. People like my old bass player that sold truck parts for a living, thinking that would sustain itself for another 40 years until he could retire.

Watching him cry about getting cut down to 50% of his salary only a year prior was kinda sad to watch, but in reality I wanted to shake him. Why in the world did he think a high school diploma and no real job skills would make 6 figures for the rest of his life? His counterparts at the other area dealerships were all making $40k a year while he made $120k. It didn't dawn on him that his dad hooked his ass up at 19 years old with the truck porter job. He just waited for people to retire until he became a parts salesman. At some point the big rig dealership was sold from the mom and pop operation, and corporate bean counters have been cutting expenses left and right. Last I talked to him he was down right terrified since that's all he knows how to do. Show up on time, and look up inventory on a computer.

This is the part that pains me the most. if you are selling truck parts for a living, you're in sales. That's a highly transferable skill set. If truck parts are not paying well enough anymore, go sell something else.

At their core, everyone has one (or more) transferable skill set, whether is interpersonal, analytical, manual, intellectual, financial, technical etc etc


I started out in the MI industry, now I am in the travel industry for almost 10 years but the skills I carried over are basically the same, just applied to different markets/concepts. If my current industry starts to suffer major cuts, I can transfer my skills to a number of other industries.

Like I said, people that can adapt will be fine. That doesn't mean you need to learn something completely new, you just need to adapt what you know to a new field.

[Dave]

Like Billy said, with every wave of automation we'll discover new careers and fields that didn't exist prior to those changes.

The only people that should be worried are the ones that typically aren't. People like my old bass player that sold truck parts for a living, thinking that would sustain itself for another 40 years until he could retire.

Watching him cry about getting cut down to 50% of his salary only a year prior was kinda sad to watch, but in reality I wanted to shake him. Why in the world did he think a high school diploma and no real job skills would make 6 figures for the rest of his life? His counterparts at the other area dealerships were all making $40k a year while he made $120k. It didn't dawn on him that his dad hooked his ass up at 19 years old with the truck porter job. He just waited for people to retire until he became a parts salesman. At some point the big rig dealership was sold from the mom and pop operation, and corporate bean counters have been cutting expenses left and right. Last I talked to him he was down right terrified since that's all he knows how to do. Show up on time, and look up inventory on a computer.

This is the part that pains me the most. if you are selling truck parts for a living, you're in sales. That's a highly transferable skill set. If truck parts are not paying well enough anymore, go sell something else.

At their core, everyone has one (or more) transferable skill set, whether is interpersonal, analytical, manual, intellectual, financial, technical etc etc


I started out in the MI industry, now I am in the travel industry for almost 10 years but the skills I carried over are basically the same, just applied to different markets/concepts. If my current industry starts to suffer major cuts, I can transfer my skills to a number of other industries.

Like I said, people that can adapt will be fine. That doesn't mean you need to learn something completely new, you just need to adapt what you know to a new field.

I asked him about the sales thing, because it seemed to only make sense to transfer to a better paying sales job...

He's the guy that works the parts counter at a big rig dealership. The original owners had a profit sharing plan in place for the sales guys and service writers to share the wealth so to speak. So he moved up from truck porter to being one of the 4 parts counter guys over 15 years. Epitome of the good ol' boys club deal where they only hire friends and family and only way to get "promoted" is to wait out retirements.

So his life skill was looking up part numbers for truck drivers, and shipping them a part through the computer. He isn't a normal salesman. Service writers and truck companies submit purchase orders and he fulfills them in the system.

When mom and pop sold the dealership to International, the giant trucking conglomerate, they sent their bean counters in and wiped out the top managers. I asked why he didn't switch to a different dealership, and he said his specific dealership was paying at least 3x what the industry norm is through that profit sharing plan the family owners had in place. His base salary is minimum wage. Not an over exaggeration, almost all of his pay was commission. The sales/service guys all earned a percentage of the profit of the dealership, and it was split equally between them all.

tl;dr he was overpaid for years and is now hurting because fulfilling parts orders on a computer isn't a $120k a year job.

[GuitarBilly]

I hear you. But at the end of the day, the title is sales... put "15 years of experience in sales" in the resume, grow a fucking pair (<- emphasis on) and go for it. Sure, he will have to learn to actually sell but even though he basically just fulfilled orders, I am sure he he shook enough hands/talked to enough people on the phone in the industry that he wouldn't start as a total beginner if he decided to take an actual sales job in his current industry. after 15 years I am sure he's on first name basis with a lot of the local trucking industry? well then... Go sell the actual trucks, or get an insurance license and specialize in commercial insurance, or even work for one of his parts suppliers etc etc...

Some people just have no hustle at all.

[Ostinato Rubato]

Yeah a lot of people lack hustle.

I applied to around 500 positions and entered the interview process on about 3% of those. Some of those applications were ambitious attempts to step upward and some were right in my wheel house. I was slightly over compensated for the market from my previous job so those ambitious attempts to go upward were really necessary for me, as they would be for this guy you describe Dave. Luckily my experience in managing a staff and some of the basic HR knowledge I had as a result, plus whatever I brought to the table in terms of personality and charisma, landed me an HR Manager job and there's a lot of promise here. At first I was like, "Fuck I barely know what I'm doing here" but that was a quick shock that I shook off really fast. I'm already the best HR manager this place has had out of the previous 3. Things are good, my boss is happy, the staff feels supported, and the starting wage was a little higher than my minimum requirement for stability and there's upward growth potential for raises.

I was getting really scared though there for a minute. I have way too many mouths to feed. It was a little traumatizing. That's why I'm still working on finishing up my B.A. in Business and getting an actual HR certification. Fuck being over experienced and under credentialed. That shit sucked.

[GuitarBilly]

dude needs some Latino blood. We got hustle.


You drop one of us off in the close vicinity of a home depot at 8am and we will be back at 5p with at least 200 tax free dollars every day, guaranteed.

[Dave]

Bwahahaha homeboy has zero hustle. Failed out of college and his dad got him a job making entry level wage. Then showed up every day and didn't fail the spot random drug tests.

[Meelosh]

Automation will be taking jobs more and more over the next few years.
I know my job will be obsolete in the next 5 to 10 years (possibly even earlier) I work in communications for Trading systems and With Skype for business and other programs for Trading taking over from tradition systems I see my job going.

do you think this will effect your work? If so do you have a back up plan?
For example I looking to redo my networking certs and hopefully get into network security (though a bit of long shot as I am in my 40's).

I started a new career in software development a few months ago. I remember in the mid 90's, some family friends were worried that this industry was going to go down the tubes due to outsourcing, but that really isn't the case any more. Many companies don't want to outsource business logic and other private stuff to randoms all over the world when they can have a trustworthy team working close to one another. As for automation, this particular software will, at most, be able to cut down on the number of accountants and/or managers that have to make certain financial decisions.

If you get a kick out of networking/security and are good at it or enjoy it, then go for it. The field of cyber security has some really interesting sounding job. Also, being in your 40's does not make it a long-shot.

[GuitarBilly]

Yeah a lot of people lack hustle.

I applied to around 500 positions and entered the interview process on about 3% of those. Some of those applications were ambitious attempts to step upward and some were right in my wheel house. I was slightly over compensated for the market from my previous job so those ambitious attempts to go upward were really necessary for me, as they would be for this guy you describe Dave. Luckily my experience in managing a staff and some of the basic HR knowledge I had as a result, plus whatever I brought to the table in terms of personality and charisma, landed me an HR Manager job and there's a lot of promise here. At first I was like, "Fuck I barely know what I'm doing here" but that was a quick shock that I shook off really fast. I'm already the best HR manager this place has had out of the previous 3. Things are good, my boss is happy, the staff feels supported, and the starting wage was a little higher than my minimum requirement for stability and there's upward growth potential for raises.

I was getting really scared though there for a minute. I have way too many mouths to feed. It was a little traumatizing. That's why I'm still working on finishing up my B.A. in Business and getting an actual HR certification. Fuck being over experienced and under credentialed. That shit sucked.

Not sure how it is with HR but with a lot of industries this matter and less as you get older. In my field (data analysis) 10+ years of experience will trump certification nearly every time. 10+ years on the same job and you're gold.

Get the certs, won' hurt, but don't job hop unless necessary and try to stick with this job as long as you can, that's the best way moving forward.... after 35-40, the best employers will expect that you've spent at least a good decade somewhere.

[GuitarBilly]

As for automation, this particular software will, at most, be able to cut down on the number of accountants and/or managers that have to make certain financial decisions.

This is something I deal with on a daily basis and there are already a lot of software capable of making solid management decisions, the issue a lot of managers have with implementing them is that soon enough the "solid financial decision" the software will make is to fire their fucking asses Decision control is one of the main issues middle and even some upper management have about automating this type of process. I don't know how many times I had to hold back on something very viable that I knew it wouldn't pass the "VP ego test". But robot honey-badger does not give a fuck

I could say that "corporate politics" and "acceptable corporate waste" are the only 2 functions of my job that cannot be automated.

[Ostinato Rubato]

dude needs some Latino blood. We got hustle.


You drop one of us off in the close vicinity of a home depot at 8am and we will be back at 5p with at least 200 tax free dollars every day, guaranteed.

#badhombres (or whatever the word for "man" is in Portuguese)

[Ostinato Rubato]

Yeah a lot of people lack hustle.

I applied to around 500 positions and entered the interview process on about 3% of those. Some of those applications were ambitious attempts to step upward and some were right in my wheel house. I was slightly over compensated for the market from my previous job so those ambitious attempts to go upward were really necessary for me, as they would be for this guy you describe Dave. Luckily my experience in managing a staff and some of the basic HR knowledge I had as a result, plus whatever I brought to the table in terms of personality and charisma, landed me an HR Manager job and there's a lot of promise here. At first I was like, "Fuck I barely know what I'm doing here" but that was a quick shock that I shook off really fast. I'm already the best HR manager this place has had out of the previous 3. Things are good, my boss is happy, the staff feels supported, and the starting wage was a little higher than my minimum requirement for stability and there's upward growth potential for raises.

I was getting really scared though there for a minute. I have way too many mouths to feed. It was a little traumatizing. That's why I'm still working on finishing up my B.A. in Business and getting an actual HR certification. Fuck being over experienced and under credentialed. That shit sucked.

Not sure how it is with HR but with a lot of industries this matter and less as you get older. In my field (data analysis) 10+ years of experience will trump certification nearly every time. 10+ years on the same job and you're gold.

Get the certs, won' hurt, but don't job hop unless necessary and try to stick with this job as long as you can, that's the best way moving forward.... after 35-40, the best employers will expect that you've spent at least a good decade somewhere.

Yeah my work history helped a lot. I spent 10.5 years at my last place and I don't plan on moving from where I'm at for at least 3 and only for a significantly better opportunity if it presents itself. There's a whole hell of a lot I can learn from my current boss, just like I did from the last one. I'm lucky that both have been some seriously talented and intense business professionals who don't fuck around. Being around people like that is worth more than you can exactly measure.

[Pepi]

I saw a guy on facebook the other day saying if you lose your job to a robot, you are a moron. You are a moron because you didn't see it coming and you should have been lining up a career change. I see where he's coming from, but I don't think that I'm at risk. Most software/server stuff, drivers, deliveries, customer service, transportation I can see being the first to be replaced, but I think the science/medical field are a long way from automating. If a robot can communicate with the FDA and get clearance, I will gladly hand over my job to an automated counterpart.

I also think, possibly due to my science-fiction laded childhood, that all this automated shit is gonna break sooner than later.

This is why I got into PLCs, ladder logic programming and automation software.

[K-Bizzle]

Ironically most people think their jobs can't/won't be automated.
Just like the majority of folks think they're in the 90%. Of best drivers.

Hate to break it to you guys, as AI keeps improving so will the level of job they can replace. It's inevitable that most jobs will be replaced by automation be it soft or hard.
Hell im sure eventually having people serve you at places will be a novelty instead of the norm.
Stuffs about to get reall weird for all of us for the next 30+ years. You're gonna keep hearing more and more about things like universal basic income because guess what? Back when it was farm jobs being replaced it was factories taking that space. These days all the new jobs that are created are not low skill. All low skill jobs will be replaced and new low skill jobs won't come around to replace them.
We're going to have to come up with a new economic paradigm and fast(relatively that is).

[ajaxlepinski]

Sales and Order Taking are two very different things.

In sales, you lead gather, cold call, design sales literature, write persuasive letters/email, demonstrate the product, bid on Requests for Proposals, meet with Purchasing Agents, troubleshoot, handhold, take your clients to dinner, handle billing issues, do collections, deal with complaints and hustle your ass off. Completing an RFP can be a daunting task especially, if it's for a Government organization.

Order takers, answer the phone, do order entry and sometimes inventory control. Some are more knowledgeable and are able to make recommendations and, in the case of truck parts, may suggest repair methods.

People can certainly make the move from parts to sales and vice versa but, in sales, you need to be able to communicate effectively with a larger variety of people.

[GuitarBilly]

Ironically most people think their jobs can't/won't be automated.
Just like the majority of folks think they're in the 90%. Of best drivers.

I am pretty sure my job will be automated. I just don't care

I've always been a survivor and highly adaptable so I will deal with it when it happens. I also got to the point where my kid is almost completely raised and out of the house, my L.A. home is paid off , and frankly, I could live in here LV from my L.A. rent alone right now because my lifestyle is really modest and for the most part paid for. Not to say I am wealthy or anything, but that was never the goal.

Honestly, I can see myself leaving my job before it goes away. Don't want to stop working, but my goal is to be doing things I enjoy the next decade without worrying so much about money. Maybe take care of owls or play guitar or something...

Reaching your 40s/50s with a low overhead is fucking great. After what I've been through in my 20's as an unplanned single parent with entry level jobs and zero family support and considering I came out the other end looking pretty ok, nothing scares me anymore.


Oh and I am sure my driving sucks but that will be automated as well. I am looking forward to the day when getting on my car after getting shitfaced won't be a problem because google is fucking driving. Can't wait.

It's down to the person, their drive, goals and their personal experiences, I went from thinking the worst is yet to come in my 20's to thinking the worst is well behind me in my 40's almost seamlessly.

[The Anomaly]

Ironically most people think their jobs can't/won't be automated.
Just like the majority of folks think they're in the 90%. Of best drivers.

Hate to break it to you guys, as AI keeps improving so will the level of job they can replace. It's inevitable that most jobs will be replaced by automation be it soft or hard.
Hell im sure eventually having people serve you at places will be a novelty instead of the norm.
Stuffs about to get reall weird for all of us for the next 30+ years. You're gonna keep hearing more and more about things like universal basic income because guess what? Back when it was farm jobs being replaced it was factories taking that space. These days all the new jobs that are created are not low skill. All low skill jobs will be replaced and new low skill jobs won't come around to replace them.
We're going to have to come up with a new economic paradigm and fast(relatively that is).

I don't disagree, but, the people who work at say, McDonald's, are also their customers, so, if you get rid of one, you'll be getting rid of a chunk of the other. Same with Walmart and the like. Companies will have to watch that, at least a little.